For European logistics players, the immediate implication is clear: these flows are too large (and they’re growing even larger) to ignore. Capturing them has become a strategic priority.

This urgency is already shaping behaviour. Partnerships between incumbents and marketplaces – such as La Poste’s collaboration with Temu – reflect an attempt to secure access to these volumes. At the same time, operators are adapting networks and capacity to accommodate the surge in cross-border flows.

However, this window may be narrowing.

Chinese marketplaces are not just generating demand: they are increasingly building the infrastructure to serve it themselves. Players such as Temu, SHEIN, and Cainiao are investing in European warehousing, securing carrier capacity, and developing fulfilment networks that reduce reliance on traditional cross-border models.

This creates a strategic paradox for incumbents: the same flows they are racing to capture are simultaneously being internalised by the platforms that generate them.

Regulatory changes are likely to accelerate this shift. De minimis reforms, already underway in the US and expected in Europe, are pushing marketplaces toward bulk import models. Cainiao’s hub at Liège Airport illustrates this approach: goods are flown in at scale, cleared once, and then distributed locally.

This transition from B2C to B2B2C logistics enables platforms to bypass per-parcel duties, reduce costs, and exert greater control over fulfilment.

Crucially, these players enter with a structural advantage: control over demand data. As Nils Thiesen, CCO of Overland Transport at Rhenus Logistics notes, they can ‘manipulate the demand and then accordingly plan the supply chain.’ This ability to synchronise demand creation and fulfilment further reduces reliance on external logistics providers.